Project management/Evacuation
Natural disasters can be devastating to people and property. Hurricanes can be particularly devastating and regions affected by hurricanes may take many years to recover. The threat posed by hurricanes must be taken seriously. One of the primary issues surrounding hurricanes is the ability to properly evacuate a region prior to the hurricane occurring. The purpose of this discussion to provide a project management plan related to a hurricane evacuation plan. The research will draw information from the evacuation plan for Hurricane Andrew (August, 1992) as it pertains to Miami.
A hurricane evacuation plan is necessary for many different reasons. The primary need for such a plan it to save lives. Hurricanes can enter into a region with such force that winds and flooding produce destruction that can result in the loss of life. In addition an evacuation plan is necessary to ensure that all the people in the effected region have time to move to another location. In some instances this means that traffic on interstates have to be redirected so that they are all headed away from the storm. In addition once these individuals are in a new location there must be provisions present in the new location that will take care of the needs of evacuees. With all of this understood, like any type of project management plan, a hurricane evacuation plan involves complex types of management and procurement.
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) Hurricane Andrew was a Cape Verde hurricane that resulted in a great deal of human and economic devastation. An estimated $25 billion in damage and at the time it was the most expensive natural disaster in the history of the United States. The center reports that that the hurricane affected the Bahamas, the south Florida peninsula and parts of Louisiana. Miami was amongst the hardest hit regions. The center explains that Andrew “struck southern Dade County, Florida, especially hard, with violent winds and storm surges characteristic of a category 4 hurricane (later upgraded to category 5) on the Saffir/Simpson Hurricane Scale, and with a central pressure (922 mb) that is the third lowest this century for a hurricane at landfall in the United States. In Dade County alone, the forces of Andrew resulted in 15 deaths and up to one-quarter million people left temporarily homeless. An additional 25 lives were lost in Dade County from the indirect effects of Andrew. The direct loss of life seems remarkably low considering the destruction caused by this hurricane (“Hurricane Andrew”).”
Strategic Project Plan
Methods, Tools, and Techniques associated with Evacuation Planning
Indeed the impact of Hurricane Andrew was unprecedented. Prior to the Hurricane those in charge of emergency management were presented with the need to implement an evacuation plan that would be effective in moving people out of danger. Evacuations are a difficult undertaking as they can cost millions of dollars and they also involve politically sensitive issues. (Wolshon 2005). These costs are not derived from a single source but instead involve multiple entities. With this understood when planning an evacuation managers need to ensure that the areas being evacuated are the areas that are most likely to be in danger as a result of the hurricane. Although this is a necessary expect of evacuation planning is often inaccurate because of the unpredictable nature of hurricanes. Wolshon (2005) explains that it is all but impossible to determine which geographic areas are going to incur the most damage or where human life may be at the most risk as a result of a hurricane making landfall. The author also explains that “No matter how accurate hurricane forecasts become in the future, uncertainties will always exist in storm track, intensity, and how storm phenomena interact with the natural and built environments. One solution would be to “err on the side of caution” and order evacuations for all locations having any potential risk (Wolshon 2005, 130).” Although accuracy in predicting what geographic regions will be affected by a storm is not possible, certain types of analysis that can be conducted related to the hazards and vulnerability present in certain regions. Such analysis will be explained in more detail in the paragraphs to follow.
Analysis as a tool in Project Management
Hazard and vulnerability Analysis
An article published by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and the U.S. Armey Corps of Engineers, explains that hurricane evacuation studies must take place and the types of analyses used must be consistent with discovering certain types of information. The purpose of the hazards analysis is to “determine the probable worst-case effects for the various intensities of hurricanes that could strike an area. Specifically, a hazards analysis quantifies the expected hurricane-caused inundation that would require emergency evacuation of the population. Historically, the hazards analysis also has assumed that mobile homes outside the surge inundation area must be evacuated due to their vulnerablity to winds. The National Weather Services’ SLOSH (Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes) numerical storm surge prediction model was used as the basis of the hazards analysis for studies completed in lower southeast Florida (“Hurricane Andrew Assessment-Florida,” 11).”
For the purposes of project management in the realm of hurricane evaluation the hazards analysis plays a key role in determining they type of damage that might be incurred in a specific region. As it relates to evacuation such information is essential because it informs the decisions that managers make in deciding to proceed with evacuation plans. For instance, if the hazards analysis for areas that are 20 miles from the shoreline produce worst case scenarios that are relatively mild, these areas may not be asked to evacuate. Such an evacuation could costs a great deal and likely not be necessary. Additionally those who manae hurricane evacuation must be careful not to call for evacuations when they are unnecessary. Doing so can be quite dangerous in future events when evacuation really is necessary. People will remember previous times when they were asked to evacuate and it was not necessary. They will then be more likely not to evacuate when it is necessary because they will not have any confidence in those who are managing the evacuation. This could ultimately lead to a significant loss of life.
In addition to a hazard analysis a vulnerability analysis must also be conducted. A “vulnerability analysis uses the hazards analysis to identify the population potentially at risk to coastal flooding caused by the hurricane storm surge. Storm tide atlases are produced showing the inland extent of surge inundation for various hurricane intensities”
There are several specific questions that must be discussed as it pertains to a vulnerability analysis. These questions are retrospective and seek to explore what has happened in the past. These questions include:
What technical data/mapping was used to choose the areas to evacuate? For the most part SLOSH models are utilized to examine inundation maps and evacuation zones. These maps assist planners in deciding how to go about implementing evacuation plans. Managers must carefully study such maps to ensure that the areas being evacuated are reflected in past maps which show where the most damage occurred during past hurricanes.
Did the technical data provide a good depiction of the hazard area? In some cases the maps available are not as accurate as they could be. These inaccuracies are due in part to changes in topography, construction and the place at which the hurricane actually reaches land. All of these factors can have an effect on the accuracy of such maps. All of these factors must be taken into consideration when studying such maps.
Application
Both of these analyses will be implemented early in the evacuation management process. This is extremely feasible for evacuation planning because evacuation planning is a task that is often in place prior to hurricanes occurring. That is, areas that are most vulnerable to being inundated with hurricanes already have some type of hurricane evacuation plan in place. These plans are usually inclusive of shelters of last resort, the reversing of traffic patterns and hurricane evacuation routes that are made visible to drivers along the highway. With this understood some hazard and vulnerability analysis has likely already been conducted and such analyses are likely based on past storms. When a hurricane is actually approaching the analyses may have to be conducted again to ensure that the proper people are being evacuated as it pertains to a specific hurricane. Any repeat analysis will take place prior to informing the public concerning which regions need to be evacuated.
Behavior analysis
Another important aspect of managing evacuation plans is behavior analysis. Such analysis is essential because it assist planners in determining how people respond when asked to evacuate. Knowing how people respond is critical for current and future evacuation efforts. Once managers understand the behaviors that people are likely to display they can evacuate in a manner that is more effective. In addition they can determine with some accuracy the number of people that will likely be travelling the highways. Understanding such numbers will lead to a greater ability to manage the highway systems in a manner that reduces traffic and increases the likelihood that people will be able to reach safety in a timely manner.
In the case of Hurricane Andrew a behavioral analysis was conducted following the hurricane. According to assessment of Hurricane Andrew for Broward and Dade Counties,
“The percentage of residents who evacuated (i.e., left their homes to go someplace they believed would be safer) in Andrew varied by proximity to the shoreline. In Broward county 69% left from the Category 1-2 surge zone, and in Dade 71% left from the Category 1 area. In the Broward Category 3 and Dade Category 2-3 zones 63% evacuated, and in Category 4-5 zones 46% left from Broward and 33% left from Dade. In both counties 13% evacuated from inland areas beyond the Category 4-5 surge limits. Had Andrew’s track been slightly farther north, a significant number of homes that were not evacuated would have been flooded (“Hurricane Andrew Assessment-Florida.” )”
With these things understood concerning the behavior of people who were asked to evacuate the area the people who lived the closest to the shore were more likely to leave their homes. As a result of their behavior it can be concluded that people who live close to shore understand the vulnerable position they are in and are therefore willing to leave when the dangers associated with a hurricane are present. This also means that when future events occur these individuals will be likely to evacuate without much resistance.
Application
Although the behavioral analysis for Miami after Hurricane Andrew showed that many people evacuated when they were asked to do so, there was still a significant number of people who stayed behind. When reviewing behavioral analysis to determine how people will respond to evacuation decrees in the future, it will be important to investigate the reasons why so many people stay behind even though they have been warned that there is an imminent danger. For instance, were the people who remained poor and without the ability to travel or rent a hotel room. Were the individuals who stayed elderly or infirmed? Were they pet owners that did not want to leave their animals behind. Once the reasons why some people remained in evacuated areas is fully understood managers can make a more concerted effort to address the aforementioned issues. This might mean that certain services may need to be offered such as free transportation and guaranteed shelter. In addition, there must be services available that are present to assist the elderly or those that are suffering from illnesses. Additionally, people with pets should be assured that their pets will be taken care of if they evacuate.
Understanding behavior is also essential because it assist in determining how much emergency personnel may need to remain in any given city or region. Emergency responders are often called upon to assist people who have not evacuated. Once evacuation behaviors are understood evacuation managers can ensure that the amount of emergency responders that are left behind is consistent with the need for such responders. The aim of this is to reduce the likelihood that emergency responders will be injured or killed because they had to remain in a dangerous situation because of people who would not evacuate.
Overall, understanding behavior and applying this understanding to evacuation planning is essential to the development of an evacuation plan that will increase the number of people that leave dangerous areas ahead of the hurricane. In so doing, the amount of lives lost is greatly reduced. In addition applying the understanding of behavior will prove effective in assisting future evacuation plans.
Transportation Analysis
Like other aspects of evacuation planning, transportation requires a great deal of forethought. There are various issues that have to be considered as it pertains to transportation and evacuation. One of the primary issues is the ability to get evacuees and their vehicles from the evacuated area to a safe area in a timely manner. According to the report entitled “Hurricane Andrew Assessment-Florida”
“Information from the vulnerability, shelter, and behavioral analyses are directly input as well as various sources of permanent and seasonal population data. For the lower southeast Florida studies, regional and county clearance times were developed for two or three storm intensity groups (eg. Category 1-2, Category 3-5), several seasonal occupancy assumptions, and three rates of mobilization on the part of the evacuating population. The number of scenarios for a particular county was obviously dependent upon the inland extent of flooding and population characteristics of that locality (“Hurricane Andrew Assessment-Florida”).”
The transportation analysis involves a collaborative review of all other analysis. The other analysis provide important information related to how many people have evacuated what direction they will likely go as determined by where the shelters are located and the types of dangers that might be present as people attempt to evacuate. With all these things understood evacuation managers have the information needed to ensure safe transport.
Application
To determine current or future transportation issues related to hurricane evacuation, managers must evaluate past events first. When applying transportation analysis to past hurricane evacuation plan the following factors must be taken into consideration
1. Was the evacuation roadway network accurate and did evacuees use projected routes? Project managers always attempt to ensure that the evacuation routes chosen are accurate and easy for motorist to understand. As such in the process of reviewing past evaluations it is important to evaluate whether or not the evacuation routes established were accurate. If the route were accurate
Were any traffic control actions taken to speed up flow? This question involves different types of control actions. For instance, in some cases it may have been necessary to get police officers to direct traffic. In other instances it might be necessary to reverse traffic flow on the interstate to reduce traffic and ensure that people are moving away from as oppose to into the evacuated area. Evaluating such issues can lead to the development of an evacuation plan that is better suited to handle the amount of traffic produced by the need for evacuation. Traffic control is also important because evacuation can be a stressful time for evacuees. If evacuees feel as though they will not be able to leave the area they may begin to panic; when people panic the make poor decisions. As such traffic control becomes an important issue that must be carefully examined in the midst of the evacuation plan.
When was the evacuation essentially completed – how long did the evacuation take? The amount of time that an evacuation takes is one of the most important questions. The question is dependent on the number of people to be evacuated and the amount of time evacuation was complete before the hurricane made landfall. This information is critical because planners need to know how far in advance the call for an evacuation needs to take place in order for the evacuees to get out of the area in time. Having access to past information on the length of time it took to complete the evacuation gives planners the ability to properly determine the amount of time that will be needed to carryout evacuations in the future.
Were any major problems encountered in this evacuation? Obviously learning from past mistakes is a Other applications associated with transportation involve making sure that gas is available at various locations along the evacuation route. This is particularly essential because people evacuating often have to sit in traffic for hours and as such they run out of gas. This leads to cars being stalled and even greater traffic wait times. In addition, hurricanes usually occur at times of the year that are extremely hot. A vehicle running out of gas can result in people becoming impaired by the heat which can lead to accidents. As such evacuation plans must consider the need for gas and provide a way for people to get to the gas when necessary.
Shelters
Once people have evacuated any given area it is essential that shelters are available for people to stay in during and after the storm. Granted, some people will rent hotel rooms or stay with relatives or friends, but many others will require shelter provided by state and local agencies. As such, certain factors must be taken into consideration including a shelter analysis. Shelter analysis is necessary because it “list public shelter locations, assess their vulnerability relative to storm surge flooding, and to estimate the number of people who would seek local public shelter for a particular hurricane intensity or threat.”
The purpose of listing the shelters is so that the public can be provided with the information needed to ensure that the public has the correct information so that they can get to shelters safely. Shelters must also be evaluated as it pertains to their vulnerability. In some cases shelters may be located in places that could receive damage as a result of the hurricane. These shelters may have to close and people may have to be diverted to other shelters. Planners have to understand this vulnerability to determine which shelters should be open. Lastly, planners must know the number of people that each shelter can hold and the number of people that are likely to go to any one shelter. Much of this can be determined through the behavior analysis because it reveals a great deal concerning how many people actually use hurricane shelters.
Another aspect of shelter analysis is to determine which shelters are pet friendly. In the past most shelters have not been accommodating of animals. As such people decided to stay in their homes and had to be rescued or died. As a result of this reality many evacuation plans now include shelters that accommodate pets so that people will not be tempted to stay in a dangerous situation. Therefore the project plan will also contain a separate list of shelters that will allow people to bring their pets. This separate list will be shared with the public via local websites and through the media.
Recommendations
Suitable structures and process for project monitoring and control
The development of an evacuation place necessitates the development of suitable structures in addition to processes for project monitoring and control. At the current time there are certain criteria that have been established by federal agencies such as FEMA as it pertains to the development and structure of hurricane evacuation plans.
Overall federal, state and local government must work together to ensure that people are safe when hurricanes strike. At the federal level certain analysis of past hurricane events must be analyzed and basic blueprints concerning how to evacuate must be developed. In addition federal funds and services must be allocated to ensure that states that need such funding and services have access to them. At the state level governors and legislators must ensure that there are the adequate amounts of money set aside to ensure that people at the local level can properly manage hurricane evacuations. At the local level, mayors and city managers have a responsibility to inform their constituents of the dangers associated with hurricanes and the specific dangers posed by particular hurricanes. These individuals must also have the capacity to firmly encourage people to leave the area if the need arises. In addition they must have the ability to properly articulate the hurricane evacuation routes and where people can receive shelter.
In addition to elected officials, the local media also plays a major role in assisting in evacuation efforts. News Broadcasters must ensure that they have the most accurate information available and local government agencies should ensure that they are presenting the media with the most accurate information.
Strategy for reducing uncertainties and managing project risk
The primary strategy for reducing risks is to assess past analysis associated with hurricane evacuation. Over the years there has been a substantial increase in the number of people that have been evacuated successfully and a decrease in the number of people who have been injured or killed as a result of not evacuating. These past analysis present managers and the organizations they serve with the opportunity to review and examine why certain strategies were successful and why others were failures. In doing so, uncertainties can be reduced because the manager is taking into consideration all of the knowledge garnered from past evacuation.
Another strategy that must be taken to reduce uncertainties is to communicate effectively with the public. The stressful nature of evacuation is enough to deal with without also being confused about where to go and how to get there. For this reason any evacuation plan must also include communicating with the public as it involves the following Evacuation guidelines established by FEMA:
Have a full tank of gas in your vehicle particularly if an evacuation will probably take place. It is important to remember that some “gas stations may be closed during emergencies and unable to pump gas during power outages (“Evacuation Guidelines”).” As such it is important to get gas prior to the storm occurring.
Only take one vehicle per family to reduce the amount of traffic (“Evacuation Guidelines”).
If you don’t have a vehicle make transportation arrangements with friends or your local government (“Evacuation Guidelines”).
Listen to the radio and local media to find out evacuation instructions (“Evacuation Guidelines”).
Once you have been instructed to evacuate gather your family and leave as soon as possible (“Evacuation Guidelines”).
Leave early so that you want be caught in traffic during severe weather.
Follow the official evacuation routes. Shortcuts may be blocked off (“Evacuation Guidelines”).
Bridges may be washed out so be aware and do not drive in areas that are flooded because you may get stuck (“Evacuation Guidelines”).
Steer clear of downed power lines.
Project managers must be aware of the need to communicate with the public. It is important that at times when an emergency is occurring, people feel empowered to make decisions and to protect their families. The guidelines above show people exactly what they can do to increase the chances that their evacuation will be as smooth as possible. It is important to remember that the most important part of evacuation is ensuring that people are safe.
Risk Management
All projects face some risks. Hurricane evacuation has particularly high risks because, if done improperly, human lives are at stake. Therefore, to properly manage these risks the project manager must seek the advice and counsel of people who have been involved with prior evacuations. In addition, other experts including meteorologists, transportation experts, engineers, shelter coordinators and the like should be sought out to ensure that the strategies taken mitigate the risk as much as possible.
Risk management also comes in the form of education, disaster preparedness and response measures. The idea of educating the public concerning the real problems that can arise as a result of severe hurricanes can assist in ensure that people evacuate when they are told and that they know the steps to take when they evacuate. Both the government and the public must be prepared to handle the disaster. As it pertains to the government at every level there must be provisions set aside to ensure that people will have access to water, food and shelter. Individuals are also responsible for ensuring they have these provisions. In addition there must be a plan in place to clear debris caused by the storm including trees and downed power lines. There should also be a plan in place to restore power as soon as possible. If flooding is the issue, boats should be available to assist in rescue. Indeed preparedness is a major issue in risk management which could clearly be seen in the case of Hurricane Katrina. Because people were not properly prepared many people lost their lives. In that instance, government at every level failed to meet the needs of the people and properly manage risks. All of these issues assist in reducing risks and guaranteeing that people will have the ability to survive disaster.
Conclusion
The purpose of this discussion was to examine the role project management in hurricane evacuation plans. The research drew upon information from the evacuation plan for Hurricane Andrew (August, 1992) as it pertains to Miami. The research found that a strategic project management plan related to Hurricane evacuation must include hazard, vulnerability, behavioral, shelter and transportation analysis. These analyses evaluate what has happened in the past to determine how future evacuation efforts will take place. This information is key to determining how to move massive amounts of people in a short period of time. Behavioral analysis is of particular importance because it identifies the ways in which people are likely to react to being ordered to evacuate. Studying such behavior will assists managers in having the proper resources available for who are left behind and provisions for those who choose to evacuate. Transportation issues are also important because they assist in determining how to move people in a way that is efficient, safe and a quick as possible. The research also reveals that the public and the media play a tremendous role in ensuring that evacuation plans are effective. The public must be empowered and shown the steps that they can take in assisting their families. When this is accomplished there is less panic and evacuations can take place more easily. In addition the media must be given accurate information about evacuation routes and shelters so that this information can be given to the public in a timely manner.
Overall the research indicates that project management related to evacuation plans must takes into consideration the successes and failures of past evacuation plans. Although Hurricane Andrew caused a great deal of material damage, very few lives were lost when compare to the nature of the disaster. As such the manner in which the area was evacuated serves as a standard for the way Hurricane evacuation should be handled.
References/Bibliography
Catastrophic Hurricane Evacuation Plan Evaluation: A Report to Congress. Retrieved April 30, 2010 from; http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/reports/hurricanevacuation/rtc_chep_eval.pdf
Hurricane Andrew. Retrieved April 30, 2010 from; http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/1992andrew.html
Hurricane Andrew Assessment. Retrieved April 30, 2010 from; http://www.csc.noaa.gov/hes/docs/postStorm/H_ANDREW_ASSESSMENT_REVIEW_HES_UTILIZATION_INFO_DISSEMINATION.pdf
Wolshon, B., Urbina, E., Levitan, M., and Wilmot, C. (2005A) Review of Policies and Practices for Hurricane Evacuation. I: Transportation Planning, Preparedness, and Response. Natural hazards review. 6 (3),
Wolshon, B., Urbina, E., Levitan, M., and Wilmot, C. (2005B). “Review of policies and practices for hurricane evacuation. II: Traffic operations, management, and control.” Nat. Hazards Rev., 6~3!, 143 — 161.
